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Risk assessment for a multi-state supply chain system affected by multi-source shocks.
Academic Journal
HighlightsThe increasing globalisation of supply chains has exposed them to multi-source uncertainties and shocks, such as policy changes and cyberattacks, which amplify disruption risks. Assessing supply chain risks under multi-source shocks is crucial for providing suggestions to enhance the system reliability. Nevertheless, previous studies have not explored the risk of a complicated supply chain system with multiple suppliers and manufacturers subjected to multi-source shocks. To bridge this gap, this study conducts the risk evaluation for a networked supply chain system with diverse suppliers and manufacturers in a shock environment. A shock impact vector is constructed to quantify relationships between suppliers and the shock sources that they suffer. Each category of suppliers’ deliverability declines owing to shocks under a mixed shock model integrating cumulative and delta shock criteria. The supply relationship vector and supplier allocation coefficients are defined to indicate the networked supply-demand relationship between suppliers and manufacturers. Based on the total number of raw material types in shortage, the supply chain system’s risk is classified into different risk levels. The finite Markov chain imbedding approach and universal generating function method are employed to obtain the risk index of the supply chain system. Finally, the model's applicability is validated through numerical examples.A risk assessment model for supply chains under multi-source shocks is built.A new mixed delta shock model is built to depict the state transitions of suppliers.Network cooperation relationships between suppliers and manufacturers are modelled.A multi-state risk classification method for proposed supply chains is proposed.The finite Markov imbedding approach and the UGF method are used to derive risk indexes.A risk assessment model for supply chains under multi-source shocks is built.A new mixed delta shock model is built to depict the state transitions of suppliers.Network cooperation relationships between suppliers and manufacturers are modelled.A multi-state risk classification method for proposed supply chains is proposed.The finite Markov imbedding approach and the UGF method are used to derive risk indexes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]