- Item type
- Ebook
- Language
- English
- Publication year
- 2021
- Contributors
- ISBN
- 978-0-00-830901-5
- Note
"A book about how to make better decisions. We make thousands of decisions every day, from minute choices we don't even know we're making up to great, agonising deliberations. But when every decision we make is life-changing, the way we reach them matters. And for every decision, there is noise. This book teaches us how to understand all the extraneous factors that impact and bias our decision-making - and how to combat them and improve our thinking. Filled with new science, fascinating case studies and revealing practical examples, the skills this book teaches can be readily used by private or public institutions, by schools, hospitals, businesses, judges and in our everyday lives." - from publisher.
Introduction: Two kinds of error --- PART I: FINDING NOISE --- 1. Crime and noisy punishment --- 2. A noisy system --- 3. Singular decisions --- PART II: YOUR MIND IS A MEASURING INSTRUMENT --- 4. Matters of judgment --- 5. Measuring error --- 6. The analysis of noise --- 7. Occasion noise --- 8. How groups amplify noise --- PART III: NOISE IN PREDICTIVE JUDGMENTS --- 9. Judgments and models --- 10. Noiseless rules --- 11. Objective ignorance --- 12. The valley of the normal --- PART IV: HOW NOISE HAPPENS --- 13. Heuristics, biases, and noise --- 14. The Matching operation --- 15. Scales --- 16. Patterns --- 17. The sources of noise --- PART V: IMPROVING JUDGMENTS --- 18. Better judges for better judgments --- 19. Debiasing and decision hygiene --- 20. Sequencing information in forensic science --- 21. Selection and aggregation in forecasting --- 22. Guidelines in medicine --- 23. Defining the scale in performance ratings --- 24. Structure in hiring --- 25. The mediating assessments protocol --- PART VI: OPTIMAL NOISE --- 26. The costs of noise reduction --- 27. Dignity --- 28. Rules or standards? --- Review and conclusion: taking noise seriously --- Epilogue: A less noisy world --- Appendix A: How to conduct a noise audit --- Appendix B: A Checklist for a decision observer --- Appendix C: Correcting predictions --- Acknowledgments --- About the authors --- Also by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein --- About the publisher..
